The presumptive winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election has laid the groundwork for major changes in federal AI policy once he takes office early next year. Among them, Trump said he plans to rescind President Biden's October 2023 executive order on AI immediately after taking office.

Biden's order establishes broad oversight of AI  development. The order's core provisions include the creation of the U.S. AI Safety Institute (AISI) and require companies to submit reports on AI training methods and security measures, including vulnerability testing data. The order also directs the Commerce Department's National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to develop guidelines to help companies identify and fix flaws in their AI models.

TechCrunch noted that Trump supporters in the U.S. government have criticized the measures. In March, Rep. Nancy Mace, a South Carolina Republican, warned that reporting requirements could hinder innovation and hinder developments like ChatGPT. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) described NIST's AI  safety standards as an attempt to control speech through "woke" safety requirements.

Amid this opposition, the future of existing AI regulatory initiatives initiated by Biden remains unclear. Although AISI has a budget and international partnerships, it may end up being repealed by Biden's executive order.

Uncertain Impact

Beyond deregulation, Trump's trade policies could have a significant impact on AI development. His proposal to impose a 10% tariff on all US imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese products could affect the AI ​​industry's access to necessary technology and capital, potentially disrupting the supply of GPUs needed to accelerate AI training and inference tasks. The government may also strengthen export controls on AI chips and models to China, although some Chinese companies currently access these tools through cloud services.

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While Trump rarely discussed AI during his campaign, his other platform positions could affect the industry. His plans to restrict H-1B visas and expand oil and gas development could affect the ability of AI companies to recruit talent and obtain computing resources.

That's not the only uncertainty. Just last week, House Speaker Mike Johnson, a staunch Trump supporter, said Republicans “will likely” repeal the bipartisan CHIPS and SCIENCE Act, a Biden initiative to, among other things, spur domestic semiconductor chip production. Trump had previously publicly opposed the bill. After some pushback from Democrats, Johnson said he wanted to “streamline” the CHIPS and SCIENCE Act, according to the Associated Press.

There’s also the Elon Musk factor. The tech billionaire spent tens of millions of dollars supporting Trump’s campaign through a political action committee and has been vying for regulatory influence over the new administration. His artificial intelligence company, xAI, developed the Grok-2 language model, and like his other ventures — Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, Neuralink, and X (formerly Twitter) — they could see regulatory changes in his favor under the new administration.

What Might Take Its Place

If Trump removes federal regulation of AI , state governments could step in to fill any gaps in federal regulation. For example, in March, Tennessee enacted protections against AI voice cloning, and in May, Colorado created a tiered system of oversight for AI deployment. In September, California passed several AI safety bills, including one that requires companies to publish details of their AI training methods and a controversial anti-deepfake bill that aims to protect actors’ likenesses.

So far, it’s unclear what Trump’s AI policy might stand for, beyond “deregulation as much as possible.” During the campaign, Trump pledged to support AI development centered on “free speech and human flourishing,” but he didn’t offer specifics. He called AI “very dangerous” and talked about its high energy consumption.

Trump’s allies at the America Priorities Policy Institute have previously said they want to “make America number one in AI” through a new Trump executive order, which is still only a speculative draft and aims to reduce regulation of AI and promote a series of “Manhattan Projects” to improve militaryAI  capabilities.

During the previous administration, Trump signed executive orders on AI that focused on research institutions and directed federal agencies to prioritize the development of AI while requiring them to “protect civil liberties, privacy, and American values.”

But the AI ​​landscape is different today after ChatGPT and the Media Reality Distortion Image Synthesis model, and these early commands are unlikely to indicate future positions on the topic. We’ll have to wait and see for more details.

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